Am I in an arms race or a war of attrition?

A question every startup should ask, “Am I in an arms race or a war of attrition?”

An arms race is a question is who gets there first. A war of attrition is a question of who gets there at all.

Misclassifying your situation can be devastating.

But when you can only know the truth in hindsight, how do you know which game you are playing? A useful diagnostic - ask yourself: which failure mode is more likely to kill you - not moving fast enough (missteps included) or making a wrong move?

Winning requires both - speed and direction. But knowing which to prioritize right now is the difference between making it to the end game and washing out.

Of course, all of this assumes the market is worth winning in the first place…